My canadian business

From Canadian Business Online Blog, Mar 02, 2009

 By: Larry MacDonald

On a day like today, as stocks plummet further below their November lows, it’s hard to blame investors for failing to “be greedy when others are fearful,” as Warren Buffett advises. Buying into this market would feel like throwing money into a meat grinder. Indeed, it may be enough of a challenge just to keep an even keel emotionally as portfolios tumble ever deeper into the red.

I agree with those who say investing is as much about character as it is about analytical capability. Character is about having strength in the face of adversity, of being able to hold onto what you believe in while others around you are losing their moorings. It’s about following your own counsel regardless of the crowd view. It’s about having perspectives such as the following:

1. Things are easier to endure if you maintain a healthy balance in lifestyle – proper diet, fresh air, exercise, and other diversions. In Ottawa, a good two-hour skate from one end and back on the canal (world’s longest skating surface) does wonders for clearing the mind. So does a trip away somewhere where the activities are guaranteed to occupy you, like a visit to a cross-country ski resort in the Laurentian Mountains north of Montreal. Needless to say, checking your account and the pulse of financial markets every hour is not part of the prescription.

2. Using mental imagery techniques may help – for example, envisioning what the stock market will look like three to five years from now. Chances are it will be more like the beginning or middle of the last bull phase, from 2002 to 2007. All this anguish will be a faint memory.

3. As mentioned in my column, Why investor’s get burned, realize we are in the phase of the bear market when all the doomsayers look like they were right and are getting major air time in the media. After awhile, they begin to sound plausible. The bottom in the market is four years away says one. Civil unrest in the streets says another. So like Ulysses, you have to “tie yourself to the mast” lest the Sirens’ song lure you into changing direction or jumping into the sea.

4. If the thought of having lost so much money wears on you or even keeps you awake at night, get proactive with making and executing plans for recouping some of the losses via application of your human capital. That is, you may be able to leverage your career training and experience more. Perhaps that might require spending less time on hobbies and more time in income earning pursuits.

5. Keep in mind the history of stocks markets. For example, the greatest rally in the market occurred in the midst of the Great Depression, when the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rocketed over 100 per cent during the three months from July to September of 1932. The second greatest rally also occurred during the Great Depression, in the 1933, the year after the first greatest rally.

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  1. 7 Responses to “ Toughing it out ”

  2. “Throwing money in a meat grinder” is a neat analogy. Logic dictates that the lower the markets, the higher the future expected returns and net buyers of stock should pray for a deep market crash. Emotionally though, it is difficult to keep chugging along.

    By Canadian Capitalist on Mar 2, 2009

  3. Larry,

    http://www.dshort.com/charts/bears/four-bears-large.gif – see chart

    Seems to me there is a small problem with comparing upturns in the US 29 crash and this the US 09 crash. In comparing the comparison from peak of market – we are at month 16.8 (09) vs. the end of the 29-30 crash which ran 34 months. Interestingly we are currently m.16.8 and that point both US29 and US 09 are both down 55.2%.

    Keep in mind the history of stocks markets. For example, the greatest rally in the market occurred in the midst of the Great Depression, when the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rocketed over 100 per cent during the three months from July to September of 1932. The second greatest rally also occurred during the Great Depression, in the 1933, the year after the first greatest rally.

    Personally I am still routing for a 73/74 crash comparison, but Larry your comments are very frightening.Primarly because you are probably right.

    By goldeneye on Mar 3, 2009

  4. Goldeneye
    You are right about the time frames and we could have much further to fall. However, I’m hoping it won’t go as far as the 1930s because the policy response has been much more vigorous this time around (so I read).

    By Larry MacDonald on Mar 3, 2009

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