The latest to draw insider buying is Aecon Group. In late November, three directors bought over half-a-million dollars worth of shares in a range from $5.75 to $7.50. The number of insiders and dollar amounts are fairly strong signals.

The company is holding up well so far during the global downturn. “At the end of October, the firm reported record-level quarterly earnings of $23.1 million, or 45 cents per share. It also reported, as of September 30th, a $1.5-billion work backlog,” noted INK Research.

Before Aecon Group, the infrastructure firm attracting insider buying was SNC-Lavalin Group, adds INK Research. Both, being Canadian-based multinational firms, should find it easier to sell to foreign markets following the 30% decline in the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar over the past year.

1. During recessions, governments typically raise spending on infrastructure projects to get the economy moving again (e.g. China’s recent announcement of a stimulus package worth more than half a trillion dollars)

2. Developing countries have significant growth potential and need to build new infrastructure to support that growth over the long run (for example, it is estimated that by the year 2025 in China, 350 million people will move to urban centers – this will be like building 20 New York Cities from scratch)

3. Developed countries have aging infrastructure in need of repair and upgrading

4. Pension and other institutional investors are increasingly investing in infrastructure assets

5. Infrastructure is seen as a hedge against inflation because a good part of revenues come from tolls and regulated prices (which are set according to cost-plus formulas)

6. Declining commodity prices render infrastructural projects more profitable and make it feasible for suppliers to take them off the shelf

7. Infrastructure stocks have been dragged down by the financial crisis and are now better values.

Several infrastructure exchange traded funds (ETFs) make it easy to gain exposure. But check what’s under the hood before investing. There are significant differences. For example GII is nearly 90% utilities while IGF is 40% and FLM is 0%. They are all global ETFs and so may be affected by currency fluctuations. CIF trades on a Canadian exchange; the rest on U.S. exchanges.

• iShares S&P Global Infrastructure ETF (IGF)
• SPDR/FTSE Macquarie Global Infrastructure 100 Fund (GII)
• ISE Global Engineering and Construction Index Fund (FLM)
• Claymore Global Infrastructure ETF (CIF)
• PowerShares Emerging Markets Infrastructure Portfolio ETF (PXR).

First, diversifying into foreign markets is less appealing because the Canadian dollar has now lost a great deal of purchasing power and buys much less (hopefully you did your foreign diversification as 2007 came to an end). As well, the risk of incurring currency losses on foreign holdings has risen since the loonie has fallen back closer to the bottom of its historical range and is more likely to go up in years ahead. In short, it’s perhaps time to think about investing more in Canadian stocks.

Second, the drop in the Canadian dollar obviously benefits manufacturing and other non-resource exporters that have long suffered under the loonie’s rise over recent years. This sector of the Canadian economy perhaps deserves more attention, especially if the exporter has a lot of clients in recession-resistant sectors. An example might be SNC-Lavalin Group (SNC.TO), which takes on infrastructure projects for governments around the world.

Third, the drop in the loonie means the dampening effect of a strong currency is gone. Imported inflation will put pressure on the Canadian consumer price index to rise and that means the Bank of Canada will have less leeway to lower interest rates in response to recessionary conditions. Shares in Canadian companies selling mainly to the domestic market may reward investors less than companies selling more to foreign markets.