Really, there’s still no clear answer, but I’ve tried to at least lay out the relevant points and explain the differences (and similarities) between the two men. You can read the whole story here, but what struck me was just how troubled many of the people I spoke to were about the rising deficit. It seems as if that’s erased much of the pro-business moves Harper has done before the recession. It make sense — how can the PM cut taxes and make business friendly policies when he has a mounting debt to pay down — but it’s unlikely he’ll abandon his Conservative convictions all together if he stays in power. He also had to go into a deficit — all the G20 countries committed to spending 2% of their GDP on stimulus initiatives and right now Canada’s deficit is about 3% of the GDP. Does this mean Harper has abandoned his Reformist ideals? Maybe. His old self would likely be shocked at how much his new self is spending on buying car companies and propping up other failing industries.

Anyway, check out the story and please comment if you have anything to add.

• In loonies stacked equals the 2.5 times the distance from the earth to the moon.
• Equal to almost $62,000 for each Canadian family in the 2006 census.
• Only 23 countries had a GDP greater than C$550 million according to the IMF.
• At the Stats Canada average of $42,692, the annual wages of 12,884,000 Canadians.

In addition to the main rankings, we list stocks according to growth, value, turnaround, defensive, income trusts, best managed, cash flow, dividends and the top 25 stocks in several catgories.  If you read the magazine for the articles, Joe Castaldo, Jeff Sanford, Sarka Halas, Sharda Prashad, Andrew Wahl, Thomas Watson, Matthew McClearn and Calvin Leung all make very powerful contributions.

The GDP figures released by Statistics Canada last week were widely presented as a good news/bad news proposition in the media. On the one hand, the numbers stunk — the economy grew at an annualized rate of just 0.3% in the second quarter. But, on the other hand, 0.3% is still growth, and suggest that Canada has so far eluded a technical recession (broadly though inaccurately defined, by everyone in general but no one in particular, as two quarters of economic contraction).

So should business-watchers fret, or breathe a sigh of relief? Well, as David Wolf, occasional columnist for Canadian Business, head of Canadian economics and chief strategist for Merrill Lynch Canada, recently pointed out, the situation for business might be more bleak than even the bleak GDP numbers suggest.

Government spending in Q2 accounted for a 1.0% increase in GDP — which means that nongovernment spending (by you, me, the corner store, the factory in the next county) shrank in the second quarter. Same situation in the previous quarter. Consider that such private sector activity accounts for about 80% of the economy, and you get the picture. It’s not pretty.

How long can Canadian governments delay a full-blown recession? That’s one question.

The other is, what would have happened if our governments, rather than sitting on surpluses for the past few years, had had the foresight to initiate meaningful, swift and smart tax cuts (ie, not the GST reduction) back when they had the chance?

Government is keeping the good times going by spending more (and spending, by the way, has at the federal level been outpacing economic growth for years). Will this be an election issue? One can only hope… 

The piece details the changing strategy behind the acquisitions: Chinese firms remain focused on obtaining raw materials needed to power China, but are also now working on strategic deals in a number of industries, for varied reasons that include desire to help these companies globalize, to get access to new markets and to obtain critical skills.

One point that stood out to me was McKinsey’s forecast for government ownership levels in publicly traded state-owned enterprises. According to its research, while the state is currently the majority owner in many of these companies, the management consultant expects that to change. The Chinese government’s stakes are shrinking, and if McKinsey’s prediction proves true, those pieces will be almost nonexistent by 2012. This, Luedi writes, means that “their shareholders will increasingly hold them accountable for the value created (or destroyed) by their overseas acquisitions.” He continues: “That will further reduce fears that they might act on behalf of the government. It will also make them obtain access to funds through conventional channels, such as market-rate equity issuance or debt.”

Prediction markets are a forum for placing bets on some event occurring. They are thought to provide better forecasts than other approaches such as opinion polls and panels of experts. People are putting down real money on their opinions, so there is an extra incentive to try and get it right.