By: Larry MacDonald
Stock-market bears are on the endangered-species list. More and more are morphing into bulls, including Interest Rate Observer publisher James Grant who says the deeper the slump the zipper the recovery (hat tip to Canadian Capitalist).
But there are still a few lone bears roaming the commons. Of note is Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs Investment Research. His latest analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury projects 358,000 U.S. jobs lost in September, almost double the consensus estimate.
A TrimTabs study concludes job losses “are contributing to record mortgage delinquencies, which will be a drag on economic growth for several years. In addition, defaults have spread to commercial real estate loans, credit cards, and commercial and industrial loans.”
Mr. Biderman adds: “Consumers are in terrible financial shape despite the trillions of dollars the government has spent on bailouts and stimulus programs. When investors realize how weak the economy truly is, stock prices are going to plunge.”
One Response to “ “Stock prices are going to plunge” ”
The thing about being a perma-bear is that it’s pretty much a no-lose situation. Sure you get lots of criticism during a bull run, but then when the market does turn to the negative, you’re heralded as a great oracle. It doesn’t even matter how long it took to get there.
Is he right? I don’t know. Maybe. But he’s no different than all the other “analysts” who really just contribute wild guesses to the conversation.
By Neil on Sep 30, 2009