By: Larry MacDonald

Declines of this magnitude in bank loans have never been seen before in the data (which goes back to the mid-1970s). By comparison, the worse recession of the post-war era — in the early 1980s — saw less than a 3.5% drop.  As if we didn’t have enough bad news already emanting from the U.S. financial sector, the latest being the loss of confidence in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

When individuals and businesses don’t get loans, they pull in their horns and the economy wilts. Furthermore, credit contraction makes the banking system a poor conduit for stimulative monetary policy. If the recent decline in bank credit continues, could the much anticipated U.S. recession finally make an appearance? And could it be of the hard-landing variety?