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From Canadian Business Online Blog, Mar 16, 2009

 By: Larry MacDonald

The failure rate for persons who try to make a living from active trading strategies is said to be 80%. But if you are a newbie interested in taking a shot at becoming one of the successful 20%, a first step might be to read Ken Little’s The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Active Trading (source of the above stats on success rates).

Among other things, you’ll learn that direct-access brokers give short-term traders an edge. Their trading platforms route orders to the market faster, quote real-time prices, and show standing buy and sell orders known as Level II quotes. Some also offer back testing of trading ideas, real-time charting, and demo accounts.

The Level II quotes are a particularly handy tool for the short-term trader. They can see if demand or supply is building in the order book to confirm price and volume signals and then trade the imbalance. But there are pitfalls. Large orders can be hidden by breaking them up. And some professionals may feint traders by putting large orders in the Level II quotes to give the appearance of demand or supply build-ups.

The book also advises rookies to: i) first learn with paper-trading accounts available at many brokerages, ii) back test purchased or self-developed trading systems under various conditions, iii) follow a pre-session routine for gathering information that puts you into the proper mindset, and iv) have back-up Internet connections, computer systems, etc.

In general, high volume, volatile stocks are preferred by traders. They offer the most potential to make gains and are easier to exit in a hurry. Within that framework, several trading strategies were referenced. They included:

• the day trader’s practice of “scalping,” which entails buying and selling a security simultaneously if the bid-ask spread is wide enough to cover costs

• the swing trader’s practice of playing one to five-day trends triggered by events such as earning announcements

• the position trader’s practice of riding longer trends tied to factors such as business cycles and phases

• taking contrarian positions to over-reactions in the market, e.g. short selling stocks inflated by news of a merger in their industry

• merger and acquisition arbitrage, which involves going long the company to be acquired and short the acquiring company (plus other arbitrage situations, such as pairs trading and discrepancies between securities such as options and stocks)

• fading stock gaps at the open, i.e. going long in anticipation of a bounce back on a stock that opened far below its previous closing price due to some negative overnight news – especially if volume was light on the gap down

• playing support and resistance levels at even numbers in prices

A variety of tools and techniques are covered, such as margin trading, trailing stop orders, moving averages, charting (head-and-shoulders, and cup-and-handle, etc. ), technical indicators (on-balance volume, stochastic oscillator, etc.), momentum indicators (rate-of-change plot, breakouts on volume, etc). Limit and market orders take up one chapter; market orders are cheaper but are subject to “slippage,” i.e. the market maker fills your buy order at $32.75 even though the price was $32.50 at the time the order was submitted.

Ken Little is a seasoned business writer with over a dozen investing and personal finance books to his credit. It shows. The writing was crisp and clear.

However, I thought the book could have been brought to life more with real-life stories of active traders. In addition, I thought that the section on technical indicators could have had more depth: in many instances, the descriptions are rather brief and the reader is referred to an appendix for sources with more information.

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  1. 8 Responses to “ Idiot’s Guide to Active Trading ”

  2. I’d be interested in where the 80% failure rate in active trading statistic comes from. I don’t believe that 20% of active traders are able to outperform the market over the long term. Maybe 20% of active traders can beat the market over 3 months, but the proportion who outperform over a decade will be much lower.

    By Michael James on Mar 16, 2009

  3. MJ
    One should give their sources when citing statistics, shouldn’t they? It was Ken Little’s The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Active Trading (post amended accordingly). The book doesn’t cite their source.

    By Larry MacDonald on Mar 16, 2009

  4. Just curious: What does “failure rate” refer to? Is it the percentage that fail to outperform the market that Michael implies? Or is it the traders who have any capital left? I would guess (and I’m very biased here) that it is the latter. Most traders simply go broke.

    By Canadian Capitalist on Mar 16, 2009

  5. CC
    Re-reading the book, it looks like the failure rate is defined as those traders who fail to make enough money to earn a living at it (post amended). No time period is specified though.

    By Larry MacDonald on Mar 16, 2009

  6. Excellent post. Ken’s book is a great resource for trading rookies.

    http://www.dnaofsuccess.com/

    By Jack Zufelt on Mar 16, 2009

  7. I don’t understand this:

    “The day trader’s practice of “scalping,” which entails buying and selling a security simultaneously if the bid-ask spread is wide enough to cover costs”

    If you simultaneously buy and sell a share, you will lose an amount equal to the big-ask spread. How could that possibly “cover costs”?

    By Patrick on Mar 18, 2009

  8. Patrick
    Isn’t the bid price lower than the ask price? So if the spread is wide enough, it could cover transaction cost and leave a little profit. The day trader is, in effect, acting like market markers do.

    By Larry MacDonald on Mar 18, 2009

  9. Ok. The part I don’t get is how an ordinary Joe gets to buy at the bid price and sell at the ask price. I guess they put in limit orders, and then they just need to out-bid and undercut the market maker by one cent — and they’ll catch other people’s market orders?

    By Patrick on Mar 25, 2009

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