By: Larry MacDonald
William MacKenzie of Weigh House Investor Services does not recommend GICs in his book The Unbiased Investor (2007). He says “experienced investors … know they can almost always get a higher return with no additional risk, and also have daily liquidity, by buying the corporate bonds issued by the same entity that is issuing the GIC.”
Intrigued, I did a quick comparison of yields on bank GICs and bonds (using bond yields quoted online by TD Waterhouse Fixed Income Centre). What I found is that bank bonds do beat their 2- to 5-year annually compounded GICs (even after the rather steep bond commissions changed to retail investors). Here are some examples:
For 5-year maturities, annual yield on Bank of Nova Scotia’s
GIC = 2.1% vs. Bond = 2.83%.
For 4-year maturities, annual yield on the Bank of Nova Scotia’s
GIC = 1.7% vs. Bond = 2.52%.
For 3-year maturities annual yield on Bank of Nova Scotia’s
GIC = 1.6% vs. Bond = 1.88%.
For 2-year maturities, annual yield on CIBC’s
GIC = 1.15% vs. Bond = 1.32%
For 1-year maturities, annual yield on Bank of Nova Scotia’s
GICs = 0.4% vs. Bond = 0.38%.
The differences are rather minimal, except perhaps at the long end. If interest rates ever do go back up, maybe the differences will become more substantial. If one considers the bonds of non-financial companies, the yields are higher: those rated A or better yield about 50 basis points more and those rated BBB or better, yield about 75 basis points more.
On the other hand, if one buys their GICs at the institution offering the best rate, they can do better than bank bonds (at this time). The best rates range from 1.6% on a 1-year GIC to 3.35% on a 5-year, according to Fiscal Agents. The average GIC rate goes from 0.85% for 1-year to 2.66% for a 5-year.





4 Responses to “ GIC and bond rates ”
It’s true that bonds have greater liquidity, but GICs have the advantage of being backed by the CDIC. I’m not overly concerned that one of the big Canadian banks will fail, but the CDIC backing has to be worth a few basis points.
By Michael James on Nov 21, 2009
Will the spread widen when or if the rates go back up to levels that compensate for inflation?
By CanadianInvestor on Nov 22, 2009
MJ
I wouldn’t be too worried about the default risk on the bank bonds but the current spread over GICs isn’t very tempting, IMHO.
By Larry MacDonald on Nov 22, 2009
CI
I suspect they could widen for one reason or another. They might be worth watching if one has GICs and is willing to switch over.
By Larry MacDonald on Nov 22, 2009