By: Larry MacDonald
I may end up regretting this, but I bought BCE Inc. shares on its 35% plunge caused Nov. 26 by some auditors concluding a privatized BCE would not be solvent. What prompted the purchase — admittedly on the spur of the moment — was reading that several analysts think BCE shares are worth $27 to $32 (C$) without the privatization bid and BCE may invoke Plan B, which “features an enormous share buyback and a generous dividend policy,” as Andrew Willis described in his Streetwise blog (which I recommend as a must read for investors).
What’s rather astounding about this bombshell is that it was a bombshell. I don’t recall anyone mentioning that the BCE deal still faced the hurdle of an auditor’s approval. Maybe these things are normally formalities, but KMPG audits two of the biggest lenders to the buyout and one might have surmised some influence from those quarters. It just goes to show the poverty of due diligence in the market and media/analyst coverage (yes, Mr. Fama, markets are inefficient).
I’m not looking to hold BCE long term. I still don’t like its long-term prospects. As I said in July, 2007:
“As far as I can see, it is easier technologically for the cable guys to add telephone service to their package of TV, Internet and wireless than for BCE to add TV to its package of telephone, wireless, and Internet. Getting bandwidth intensive video signals through BCE’s “last mile” of copper wire would seem to be a much greater challenge than tacking telephone service onto the cable company’s pipes into the home.”
Good riddance to the privatization offer. I was never a fan or believer in it, from when BCE executives loaded up on BCE options just days before the bid was announced (no doubt long sold) to the costs imposed upon bondholders, taxpayers, employees, and consumers to the extension of deadlines to the rulings.
11 Responses to “ BCE farce ”
I hope the analysts you are referring to have made you money. If not their valuation is just pure guess work, without credibility. Analysts and economists have been more wrong than right in this market, losing investors trillions of dollars, so I would not bet my money on their call
John
By John Gan on Nov 27, 2008
John
I can understand where you’re coming from. Plenty of them said the deal would go through so imagine yesterday the reaction of investors who were holding because the advice of analysts.
By Larry MacDonald on Nov 27, 2008
So now that Mr.Sabia and all his croonies who left with a huge chunk of cash..what next for BCE .I think it was a big setup by a greedy CEO
to stuff his pockets and leave tiptoeing through the back door.Mr.Sabia managed to mess up the whole company through cost cuttings all the while in the back of his head was silently preparing this deal.
Isn’t that what most CEO’s do “TAKE THE MONEY AND RUN” and most of the time at the expense of the company and shareholders.
By Joe Blow on Nov 29, 2008
It just goes to show the poverty of due diligence in the market and media/analyst coverage
You’ve hit one of the nails perfectly. The same thing happened with the ABCP fiasco. Nobody in the national papers had found any red flags about this investment until it happened. I’m very discouraged.
By paul on Nov 29, 2008
I had phoned BCE investors relations on November 24, 2008 and asked if all the conditions for the deal have been satisfied and she advised me that the deal will close and you will get the money one or 2 days after the December 11, 2008. Upon her advice I did not sell my stock which I was intended to sell otherwise. On Wednesday we were advised that BCE could not satisfy the main condition of its post solvency. I phoned BCE again and she advised me that they were all taken by surprise. I am shocked at the misleading statements made by the BCE representatives and they knew that this report was being prepared since august and clean certificate had not been handed over to them by the KPMG. I feel that the shareholders should have been advised of this condition which had yet to be met. There should be transparency by the public company so that the shareholders can make informed decision. I feel one should be able to sue BCE for misleading the shareholders. It is very upsetting that they can get away with everything
By shelly on Dec 1, 2008
It is difficult for investors to read every line in the agreement and know that this condition had yet to be met.
BCE did not let the investors know despite the enquiry from myself a day before the news. Your office advised me that deal will go through as all the conditions have been met. To me it appears that you did this on purpose so that I will hang on to my shares when you knew all along that KPMG is still working on the solvency issue. The whole things stinks. You win in the end and the shareholders lose. The people close to the deal must have made millions from the rollercoaster that has been going on with this deal.
By shelly on Dec 6, 2008
How can B.C.E. let Mr. Sabia leave with millions of dollars when deal had yet to be closed. There are no answers to this deal, only questions. Public companies fail to understand that the company belongs to the shareholders who have invested their life savings in it. CEO of the company think that it is all their money and they can screw everybody around by having millions of dollars in salary and stock options. This happens due to lack of regulation and the what is fair amount of salary for the CEO as compared to other employees of the company. Shareholders have to lobby for their rights as the Govt. has turned deaf ears to protect the rights of their citizens.
By shelly on Dec 6, 2008
I phoned B.C.E. investors relations on November 24 , 2008 and asked if all the conditions for the
deal have been satisfied and she advised me that the deal will close and you will get the money
one or 2 days after the December 11, 2008. Upon her advise I did not sell my stock which I was intended to sell otherwise.
On Wednesday I was shocked to learn that B.C.E. could not satisfy the main condition of its post solvency. I phoned B.C.E. again and she advised me that they were all taken by surprise. I am appalled by the misleading statements made by the B.C.E. representatives when they knew that the said report by KPMG was being prepared since August and Clean Certificate had not been handed over to them by the KPMG. I feel that the shareholders should have been advised of this condition which had yet to be met. There should be transparency by the public company so that the shareholders can make informed decision. I feel one should be able to sue B.C.E. for misleading the shareholders. It is very upsetting that they can get away with everything
By shelly on Dec 6, 2008
Once again we get shafted and holding the short end of the stick.
By Pissed off Mac on Dec 7, 2008
Ahumm, Mr.Sabia can we have our 52 million back please .. the deal isn’t completed.
Sorry there is no service for the number you have dialed. click
By Belltech on Dec 7, 2008
Stop whining, you losers. Stop blaming other people. Life isn’t fair. The stock markets are certainly not fair. Accept it or invest in GICs. But for the love of God – please stop whining. You took a chance. You lost. So did I, btw. Except I don’t whine or blame others – I just accept my losses and move on. I hate losers that never accept responsibility for their own decisions. Nobody forced you to hold. Nothing is guaranteed in the stock market. Idiots.
By slick on Dec 8, 2008